What's shown in the picture
In the frame, Ned Stark stands in a dark cloak with a fur collar, holding a sword point-down. His face is serious, his gaze turned to the side, with an overcast sky and a green hill behind him. Below, in large letters, is the caption "WINTER IS COMING," which sets the tone for the whole picture.
The frame looks like a solemn portrait of a leader ready for harsh trials. That seriousness is exactly the basis of the joke, since the heavy expression contrasts with the subject of the warning, which in memes turns out to be anything but epic. The grimmer the pose, the funnier the mundane reason it's being used for.
Origin
The motto "Winter is coming" belongs to House Stark and appeared in George R. R. Martin's novels in the A Song of Ice and Fire series, the first of which came out in 1996. In the HBO series, which premiered in 2011, the phrase is spoken in the first season by Ned Stark as a warning about danger approaching from beyond the Wall, and it's this line that became the basis for later jokes.
The meme began spreading in the English-speaking internet in 2011, when users started captioning photos of Ned with "Brace yourselves, winter is coming." The exact author of the first such caption has not been established in open sources, and it spread through imageboards and communities, where the template was quickly adapted into different languages, including Russian captions.
How it's used
The Russian version of the meme is used in seasonal captions: "Winter is coming" accompanies reminders to buy wool socks, felt boots, or winter tires, as well as reminders about chores piled up over summer before the cold sets in. The caption is usually written in a solemn tone, as if describing an invasion by an army of White Walkers, though in reality it's about ordinary household preparation.
Over time the phrase came to denote any expected event. What's coming might be exam season, payday, a vacation, or another deadline, and then the picture takes on the meaning of a warning about the inevitable. This shift in meaning makes the meme useful for jokes about everyday hardships, and the template's repetitiveness helps it be recognized at a glance.
Why the meme works
The key to the joke lies in the contrast between the show's epic tone and a thoroughly mundane occasion. It's enough for the viewer to see Ned's solemn pose to understand something far more serious is implied, and the caption instantly switches the meaning to an everyday situation. This mismatch is what produces the comic effect.
The meme also relies on the show's recognizable imagery: the cloak, the sword, the cold landscape, and the character's familiar face. Thanks to this, the template is understandable even to those who haven't watched the show, and it remains a convenient way to jokingly warn about the inevitable. The phrase long ago outgrew its plot and became part of the shared language of internet humor.